版权说明 帮助中心
首页 > 成果 > 详情

Urban Rail-Transit Project Investment Benefits Based on Compound Real Options and Trapezoid Fuzzy Numbers

SCI-ESSCI
认领
导出
Link by DOI
反馈
分享
QQ微信 微博
成果类型:
期刊论文
作者:
Tang, Wenbin*;Cui, Qingbin;Zhang, Feilian;Chen, Yan
通讯作者:
Tang, Wenbin
作者机构:
[Zhang, Feilian; Chen, Yan] Cent S Univ, Sch Civil Engn, 68 Shaoshan South Rd, Changsha 410075, Hunan, Peoples R China.
[Cui, Qingbin] Univ Maryland, Dept Civil & Environm Engn, 1157 Glenn L Martin Hall, College Pk, MD 20742 USA.
[Tang, Wenbin] Changsha Univ Sci & Technol, Sch Econ & Management, 960,2nd Sect,Wanjiali South Rd, Changsha 410114, Hunan, Peoples R China.
[Chen, Yan] Hunan Univ Commerce, Dept Engn Management, 569 Yuelu Ave, Changsha 410205, Hunan, Peoples R China.
通讯机构:
[Tang, Wenbin] Changsha Univ Sci & Technol, Sch Econ & Management, 960,2nd Sect,Wanjiali South Rd, Changsha 410114, Hunan, Peoples R China.
语种:
英文
关键词:
Urban rail transit;Investment benefits;Compound real options;Trapezoid fuzzy numbers
期刊:
JOURNAL OF CONSTRUCTION ENGINEERING AND MANAGEMENT
ISSN:
0733-9364
年:
2019
卷:
145
期:
1
文献类别:
WOS:Article
所属学科:
WOS学科类别:Construction & Building Technology;Engineering, Civil;Engineering, Industrial
入藏号:
机构署名:
本校为其他机构
摘要:
A long investment cycle and complex environmental changes bring lots of uncertainty to urban rail-transit (URT) project investment, and lead to many investment risks. However, investors' aggressive flexible management strategies may effectively avoid the risks and create greater investment benefits. In order to scientifically evaluate the potential benefits brought from flexible management, this paper systematically builds an analysis framework for investment benefits evaluation based on real options theory. Previous studies have still been confined to the single option benefits measurement and the evaluation methods assume that expected investment cost and income were constant. To fill the gap, this study takes account of the interaction effects of several real options and uses fuzzy theory to relax some parameter hypotheses, then establishes a multiple-fold compound real-option benefits evaluation model based on trapezoidal fuzzy numbers. Another contribution of this paper is that it provides a clear modeling approach for estimating the parameters of investment benefits volatility and discount rate by using historical open data in the financial market. A case study of the Changsha Metro Line 2 in China is discussed, and the empirical analysis shows that option benefits account for a large proportion of the entire investment returns. Moreover, the compound option benefits are about five times of the single option, so the implied option benefits, especially the compound option benefits, should not be ignored in the measurement of the URT project, and investors should be encouraged to actively implement flexible management strategies. Finally, this paper makes a sensitivity analysis of compound option benefits, and provides a basis for effectively reducing the government's subsidies and achieving profitability of URT project investment.
参考文献:
Baranov A, 2015, PROC ECON FINANC, V27, P116, DOI 10.1016/S2212-5671(15)00980-6
Biancardi M, 2017, FUZZY SET SYST, V310, P108, DOI 10.1016/j.fss.2016.10.013
Carlsson C, 2003, FUZZY SET SYST, V139, P297, DOI 10.1016/S0165-0114(02)00591-2
Cassimon D, 2004, RES POLICY, V33, P41, DOI 10.1016/S0048-7333(03)00089-1
Cassimon D, 2011, TECHNOVATION, V31, P240, DOI 10.1016/j.technovation.2010.12.004

反馈

验证码:
看不清楚,换一个
确定
取消

成果认领

标题:
用户 作者 通讯作者
请选择
请选择
确定
取消

提示

该栏目需要登录且有访问权限才可以访问

如果您有访问权限,请直接 登录访问

如果您没有访问权限,请联系管理员申请开通

管理员联系邮箱:yun@hnwdkj.com